Technology

US-China Tech War Likely to Heat Up with Trump or Harris in Office

The US-China tech war is expected to escalate under either Trump or Harris. New rules on technology exports and tariffs loom as both candidates prioritize U.S. economic security.

The US-China tech war is poised to escalate, regardless of whether Republican Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5. Both candidates are expected to adopt strategies that will further strain the relationship between the two global powers, focusing on technology exports, tariffs, and economic competition. With each administration likely to take a different approach, the implications for international trade and security could be profound.

Harris and Trump's Potential Strategies in the US-China Tech War

In her campaign, Kamala Harris has vowed to ensure "America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century." This statement underscores a commitment to maintaining U.S. technological leadership and protecting American interests against perceived threats from China. Conversely, Donald Trump has emphasized increasing tariffs as a means to counteract China's technological advancements. Both approaches signal an escalation in the US-China tech war, with a focus on controlling the flow of critical technologies.

New Rules and Export Controls in the US-China Tech War

Expectations are high for new measures aimed at limiting Chinese imports of less sophisticated chips and smart cars, alongside increased restrictions on chipmaking tools and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies destined for China. Former officials from both the Biden and Trump administrations, as well as industry experts, anticipate significant policy shifts regardless of the election's outcome. This could include tightening export controls on semiconductor technology, which is vital for various high-tech applications. For more on the implications of these technologies, see The Brookings Institution.

Coordinated vs. Aggressive Approaches in the US-China Tech War

Should Harris take office, her policies may be more coordinated with U.S. allies, reflecting a nuanced strategy. "We're seeing the opening of a new front in the US-China tech war that focuses on data, software, and connected devices," said Peter Harrell, a former national security official in the Biden administration. This approach may involve working closely with allies in Europe and Asia to create a united front against Chinese technology companies that pose security risks. For insights into how alliances affect technology policy, visit The Council on Foreign Relations.

Conversely, a Trump administration could employ a more aggressive stance, acting quickly to impose new restrictions. Experts predict that Trump would be less concerned about the diplomatic fallout of unilateral actions. "I think we learned from President Trump's first term that he has a bias for action," noted Jamieson Greer, former chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative under Trump.

Implications for Technology Exports in the US-China Tech War

Industry insiders suggest that a Trump administration may significantly expand the entity list to restrict exports to Chinese companies and their affiliates. This list, which includes companies that are considered threats to national security, could see additional firms added under a more aggressive Trump approach. Such measures could include denying licenses for shipping U.S. technology to China and implementing tariffs on a broader range of imports, which may impact various sectors, including electronics and automotive. For more information on export controls, check The Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Economic Impact and Strategic Considerations in the US-China Tech War

While both candidates prioritize economic security, their methods differ significantly. Trump is likely to take a "sledgehammer" approach to trade controls, as noted by former Commerce officials, while Harris may prefer a more strategic "scalpel" method. This divergence underscores the differing philosophies surrounding U.S.-China relations and their impact on the US-China tech war. The consequences of these policies could extend beyond the immediate economic impacts, affecting global supply chains and technological innovation.

Moreover, Harris has indicated a willingness to engage in multilateral agreements to address shared concerns about China, suggesting that her administration would pursue diplomacy alongside economic measures. In contrast, Trump’s inclination towards unilateral action could further isolate the U.S. from international allies, potentially leading to retaliatory measures from China.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the US-China tech war will continue to escalate, regardless of who wins the election. Both candidates are expected to implement measures that will affect not only their respective countries but also global technology markets. With increasing tensions and competing economic interests, the stage is set for a prolonged conflict over technological dominance. The next U.S. administration will need to carefully navigate these challenges to protect American interests while managing relationships with allies and adversaries alike.